Paal Fredrik Skjørten Kvarberg
I am a researcher at the University of Oslo.My research examines methods for making sound decisions based on accurate predictions and well-founded evaluations of outcomes.My PhD dissertation, Public Models of Welfare, develops an evaluative framework for integrating data on quality of life into policy appraisal and decision-making.I am currently the principal investigator of UiO Political Forecasting Tournament. In this project, my collaborators and I apply experimental methods to measure the accuracy of judgments made by experts and laypeople across several policy-relevant domains. The aim of the project is to identify ways to improve political and institutional decision making procedures.I have written about how AI can be used to improve learning outcomes in educational settings, and I am involved in projects to develop AI-based technology for learning and reasoning.I am part of the interdisciplinary Modeling Human Happiness project, and the Science and Democracy Research Group at the University of Oslo. In 2024-2025 I was affiliated with Uehiro Oxford Institute.Scroll down to learn more about my projects. My mail address is: paalfredrikskjorten(at)gmail.com

About
My research interests revolve around political decision-making and the practical conditions for informed public debate. My bachelor thesis addresses questions relating to political liberalism and deliberative democracy. My master's thesis explores whether there are rational answers to value questions, and defends a theory of practical rationality which seeks to vindicate an affirmative answer.After completing my master’s thesis, I studied social science and computational linguistics at the University of Oslo. In 2020, I launched a project to develop AI-based technology for deliberate practice and formative assessments, with support from the Norwegian Research Council.The main objective of my PhD research project is to identify the conditions for a valid and legitimate public evaluative framework for appraising policy and social progress. My hypothesis is that the best method for satisfying these conditions is to develop a national welfare index based on research into well-being and the values of citizens. A secondary objective of the PhD project is to uncover the conceptual and causal structure of well-being. My hypothesis is that objective features of a person can explain what it means for that person to have positive experiences and goals that are suitable for them.In 2024, a team of researchers and I received a grant to launch a political forecasting tournament that investigates the link between predictive accuracy and political decision-making. In this experimental research project, we test whether research-based methods for improving foresight can be easily learned and applied without extensive training and effort. We also test the accuracy of AI-generated forecasts, and the relevance of forecasting questions to policy debates. Here is an interview with me about the project in Morgenbladet.I spend most of my time doing research or working on projects. However, I also enjoy trail running, climbing, skiing, and curating music playlists. These hobbies have grown into projects too. Mood Manipulator is a project to develop music playlists for any occasion. Jotunheimen 35mm is a project to document mountains in Jotunheimen with my Nikon L35 Ad2 35mm camera.


Research
Selection of writing and media appearances
Interview about national measurement of well-being, Science Norway, April 18, 2026.Interview regarding UiO Political Forecasting Tournament, Morgenbladet, Jan 28, 2025.Elevens Fremtid, opinion piece in Klassekampen, July 22, 2025.Innspill til Nasjonal livskvalitetsstrategi (Policy note to the Norwegian government) with Aksel Braanen Sterri and Langsikt, Regjeringen.no, Feb 29, 2024.Two Directions for Research on Forecasting and Decision-Making, EA Forum, Mar 11, 2023.Digitalisering og aktiv læring for språk og argumentasjon, Norsk Filosofisk Tidsskrift, May 30, 2022.Liberalismens grenser, Debattinnlegg i Morgenbladet, April 04, 2019.On Alienation: A Reconstructive Analysis of the Concept of Alienation, Filosofisk Supplement, Jan 1, 2019.
Public Models of Welfare
My PhD dissertation develops an evaluative framework for using models of well-being to filter relevant statistical information about quality of life in policy appraisal and decision making. The central problem I have sought to address concerns attribution of weights to indicators of well-being in national measurement systems, and aggregation of myriad indicators into summary assessments that are directly relevant to political decisions. The dissertation applies normative principles from the liberal democratic tradition in political theory to defend a value-alignment approach which subjects value-laden measurement and modeling decisions to democratic scrutiny.The dissertation consists of three articles and an extended introduction. The introduction traces the history of welfare appraisal in the Western tradition, with particular attention to the concerns that have motivated the rise of the dominant subjective paradigm in the policy-oriented sciences of human welfare, including welfare economics, psychology and medicine. On the basis of an interpretation of these concerns, developed within a practically oriented theoretical framework, I argue that an adequate public model of welfare should offer a determinate account of individual well-being that can be represented on an interpersonally comparable cardinal scale, and that is aligned with citizens’ values in the sense that it accords with their considered judgements about what welfare consists in. The papers that comprises the dissertation develops conceptual models of health and well-being that aim to satisfy these formal and practical desiderata.
UiO Political Forecasting Tournament
I am the principal investigator of a research project titled the UiO Political Forecasting Tournament. In this project, my collaborators and I apply experimental methods to measure the accuracy of judgments made by experts and laypeople across several policy-relevant domains.The project evaluates personal judgement through predictive accuracy, and investigates the relevance of predictions to normative political convictions using statistical techniques. The main aim of the project is to develop actionable proposals for evaluating expert judgement under uncertainty.

Other projects
Mood Manipulator
Thoughtful playlists for any occation.
The Jungle
Space Odyssey
Strong Feelings, Groovy Rhythms
Into the Forest
Temperate Tunes
Hot Fusion
Thumpin'
Lun Nordisk Disko
Paal's juleliste
Drømmen
Ye
Oslosommer
Oslodisko
Slaraffenland
Under vann
Bølgene på stranda
Unruly waters
Midt i Østen
Androgyne Vibber
Franske vibber
Slangetemmeren




